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The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.5% amid rising global economic uncertainty linked to U.S. tariffs. Governor Ueda highlighted domestic inflation pressures from increasing food costs and wage growth, suggesting potential rate hikes could occur if conditions align with forecasts. The BOJ will reassess its economic outlook in April, with many economists anticipating a rate increase in July.
USD/JPY is approaching a descending trend line established since January, following a rebound from a recent low of 146.50. Analysts indicate that a critical resistance level lies between 151.30 and 152.00, with a break above necessary for a significant upward movement. However, if the pair falls below 148.30, a decline may resume.
Japan's exports surged 11.4% in February, resulting in a trade surplus of 584 billion yen ($3.9 billion) after two months of deficits, as businesses rushed to ship goods before potential U.S. tariffs. Exports to the U.S. rose 10.5%, while imports fell 2.7%, leading to a surplus of 918.8 billion yen ($6.2 billion). The central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, amid rising inflation and uncertainty from U.S. trade policies.
Wall Street faced renewed selling pressure, with the Nasdaq down 1.7% and the S&P 500 dropping 1.1%, driven by growth concerns despite stronger-than-expected economic data. As the FOMC meeting approaches, markets expect the Fed to maintain rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with potential rate cuts anticipated later this year. In Asia, the Nikkei rose 0.4% ahead of the BoJ meeting, where a cautious approach is expected amid concerns over wage growth and economic resilience, while the USD/JPY is testing upper channel resistance around 149.50.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stakes in five major Japanese trading firms—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo—to between 8.5% and 9.8%. This move comes as the company reduces its exposure to US equities, with Japanese holdings valued at $23.5 billion against a cost of $13.8 billion. Buffett has praised the firms' management and capital strategies, and has secured an agreement allowing Berkshire to exceed the 10% ownership cap.
Japan's land prices surged 2.7% in 2024, marking the fastest growth in 34 years, driven by economic recovery and increased demand from inbound tourism. Residential land prices rose 2.1%, while commercial prices climbed 3.9%, particularly in popular tourist areas like Kyoto and Osaka. However, concerns linger over rising construction costs and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Shohei Ohtani's merchandise is driving massive crowds at the Tokyo Dome, where fans line up for hours to access the MLB's largest special-event store. With prices for key chains at $18 and jerseys around $500, the demand reflects the intense interest in baseball among Japanese fans, especially with Ohtani's recent $700 million contract. As the Dodgers and Cubs prepare for their games, the store serves as a hub for both local and international fans eager to purchase limited-edition items.
USD/JPY is expected to remain bearish, with the currency trading above 149 amid risk-on sentiment. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep rates unchanged but may be poised for a hike in July, influenced by corporate wage agreements. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as more significant for yen crosses than the BoJ's decisions.
The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually increase interest rates, supported by a projected rise in wages to 3.0% this year, up from 2.8% in 2024. Goldman Sachs anticipates that if wage growth aligns with these estimates, the BOJ will likely raise rates to 0.75% by July, maintaining a steady approach thereafter.
The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually increase interest rates, supported by a projected rise in wages to 3.0% this year, up from 2.8% in 2024. Goldman Sachs anticipates that if wage growth aligns with these estimates, the BOJ will likely raise rates to 0.75% by July, maintaining a steady pace of hikes thereafter.
Japanese Yen
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